Sunday, August 3, 2014

Emmy Predictions 2014: Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series

The nominations are in for the 2014 Primetime Emmy Awards. Over the next few weeks, I'll be going through several of the major categories and offer my predictions on who will win this year. Next up, Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series.

The nominees are: Breaking Bad's Vince Gilligan; Breaking Bad's Moira Walley-Beckett; Game of Thrones' David Benioff & D.B. Weiss; House of Cards' Beau Willimon; and True Detective's Nic Pizzolatto.

1. MOIRA WALLEY-BECKETT - BREAKING BAD (AMC)
EPISODE SUBMISSION: "OZYMANDIAS"

I believe this is a race between three contenders. Right now, I'm leaning towards one of the Breaking Bad nominees taking home the top prize. However, I'm unsure if the voters will want to recognize series creator Vince Gilligan for creating the wonderful drama and just let his series finale script win or if they will reward the best script from the AMC drama's final run. I'm thinking the latter but that could very well change in the weeks to come.

2. VINCE GILLIGAN - BREAKING BAD (AMC)
EPISODE SUBMISSION: "FELINA"

Gilligan has never won for writing on Breaking Bad. That could be a huge deciding factor as well. Remember when the show wasn't even getting nominated in this category? Now, it's the only one with two nods. The voters will have to decide how to best reward Gilligan for the final season amongst the series, writing and directing races. He could win all three. Or he could just get the series award. Or none at all. I'm not sure and you shouldn't be either.

3. NIC PIZZOLATTO - TRUE DETECTIVE (HBO)
EPISODE SUBMISSION: "THE SECRET FATE OF ALL LIFE"

But then, there's Pizzolatto who wrote all eight episodes of this new anthology series and it's quickly risen up as an Emmy favorite. This is one of the many Breaking Bad vs. True Detective races this year. While I do believe Pizzolatto did something special and unique this year in his crafting of a specific and close-ended story, I think there's more nostalgia for what the AMC show did last year. This is the last time that show can be recognized. Pizzolatto will have another chance with the second season of the anthology show. Because of that, I'm pulling for Breaking Bad here. Although I do believe Pizzolatto would be a very deserving winner as well.

4. DAVID BENIOFF & D.B. WEISS - GAME OF THRONES (HBO)
EPISODE SUBMISSION: "THE CHILDREN"

I don't think Benioff and Weiss will ever win in this category. They are doing a wonderful job adapting George R.R. Martin's novels. But I believe there is a small group of voters that believe that they are just adapting beat for beat. Of course, writing is much more than that. They have to make choices about structure and how those beats will pay off in the context of an episode. But that mentality may be enough for some people to vote for another nominee.

5. BEAU WILLIMON - HOUSE OF CARDS (NETFLIX)
EPISODE SUBMISSION: "CHAPTER 14"

Willimon was a much more impressive nominee a year ago when House of Cards was the shiny new thing. The most I've heard anyone talk about the show this year is that thing that happens near the end of the Season 2 premiere. And it's that precise thing that Willimon is nominated for here. It was a surprising moment. But one surprising moment doesn't mean he should win.