Friday, August 1, 2014

Emmy Predictions 2014: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

The nominations are in for the 2014 Primetime Emmy Awards. Over the next few weeks, I'll be going through several of the major categories and offer my predictions on who will win this year. Next up, Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series.

The nominees are: Breaking Bad's Bryan Cranston; The Newsroom's Jeff Daniels; Mad Men's Jon Hamm; True Detective's Woody Harrelson & Matthew McConaughey; and House of Cards' Kevin Spacey.

1. MATTHEW MCCONAUGHEY - TRUE DETECTIVE (HBO)
EPISODE SUBMISSION: "FORM AND VOID"

McConaughey is a movie actor who came to television for an eight-part event earlier this year. Emmy voters love movie stars. Moreover, he just won an Oscar. Winning both an Oscar and an Emmy in the same year is very rare and would be a great story for the awards ceremony. McConaughey gave a great performance here. So he's also very deserving of this award. I don't really see a way in which he doesn't walk away with the trophy later this month. Making his chances even greater - voters responded enough to True Detective that they also nominated his co-star Woody Harrelson. That gives McConaughey two episodes to really impress anyone not easily swayed by his movie stardom.

2. BRYAN CRANSTON - BREAKING BAD (AMC)
EPISODE SUBMISSION: "OZYMANDIAS"

The biggest spoiler in this race has to be Cranston for the final season of Breaking Bad. He's already received three wins for his portrayal of the now iconic role of Walter White. And yet, "Ozymandias" simply puts all of his acting work in the previous seasons of the show to shame. It is that great of an episode and Cranstion is a huge part of why it's equal parts amazing and devastating. If he doesn't win, I won't be upset - he still has those 3 trophies after all. But that still doesn't quite seem like enough recognition and accolades for him.

3. KEVIN SPACEY - HOUSE OF CARDS (NETFLIX)
EPISODE SUBMISSION - "CHAPTER 26"

House of Cards really is a subpar show elevated by its movie star leads. That's how it sneaked into the series race despite a really lackluster second season. It seems like the show got even more support this year than last when it was the shiny new thing. Spacey is the dark horse in this race. An upset would be surprising but I'm not ruling it out.

4. WOODY HARRELSON - TRUE DETECTIVE (HBO)
EPISODE SUBMISSION: "THE LOCKED ROOM"

McConaughey had the much flashier role on the anthology series but Harrelson was every bit as good. But he's still living in his co-star's shadow. It's a great achievement that he too was able to get nominated in this category - and that HBO didn't try to shoehorn him into the supporting field to try and get more wins. He's extremely deserving but if someone's going to win for True Detective for acting, it's gonna be McConaughey.

5. JON HAMM - MAD MEN (AMC)
EPISODE SUBMISSION: "THE STRATEGY"

Hamm was every bit as good as he has been every other year. There seems to be this idea going around that the older Mad Men gets the less deserving it is of awards recognition. Now, it kinda seems like an underrated show. The final two episodes of this half-season could go up against any of the series' best episodes. However, it seems like Hamm is better poised to win next year for the final episodes of the show when he's not forced to go up against Cranston and the True Detective guys.

6. JEFF DANIELS - THE NEWSROOM (HBO)
EPISODE SUBMISSION: "ELECTION NIGHT, PART II"

Daniels was the surprise winner in this field last year. So then, why is he dead last in my rankings this year? I fully believe he won a year ago solely on episode submission. I still will uphold the pilot for The Newsroom as a great episode of television. Daniels was great in that one episode - and the series quickly nosedived after it. The second season didn't produce a moment close to the opening scene of the pilot. Daniels didn't get any kind of grand moment like that. So it's hard for me to see him winning yet again against such heavy competition.