Friday, August 1, 2014

Emmy Predictions 2014: Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

The nominations are in for the 2014 Primetime Emmy Awards. Over the next few weeks, I'll be going through several of the major categories and offer my predictions on who will win this year. Next up, Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series.

The nominees are: Masters of Sex's Lizzy Caplan; Homeland's Claire Danes; Downton Abbey's Michelle Dockery; The Good Wife's Julianna Margulies; Scandal's Kerry Washington; and House of Cards' Robin Wright.

1. LIZZY CAPLAN - MASTERS OF SEX (SHOWTIME)
EPISODE SUBMISSION: "PILOT"

I could easily see any one of these talented ladies talking home the top prize here. It doesn't immediately feel like there is a clear frontrunner. The only reason why I'm predicting Caplan at this moment in time is because she is unproven in this race. She wasn't nominated for a Golden Globe - although the crossover between that voting academy and the Emmys is minor. She's the shiny new thing in this race and when the competition is as tight as it is here, that could be enough for her to stand out. It also helps immensely that she is giving a mesmerizing performance on the Showtime drama.

2. JULIANNA MARGULIES - THE GOOD WIFE (CBS)
EPISODE SUBMISSION: "THE LAST CALL"

Margulies is one of two former winners in this race. She had a fantastic season on The Good Wife and voters definitely noticed as she rejoined the field after dropping out a year ago. It's definitely an uphill battle to win again three years after her previous victory. However, she has the episode to do it. Sure, it's a reactionary and emotionally manipulative episode. But dang is it effective and she truly shines.

3. ROBIN WRIGHT - HOUSE OF CARDS (NETFLIX)
EPISODE SUBMISSION: "CHAPTER 26"

Wright simply got more to do in the second season of House of Cards. She was better connected to the main narrative and got to play off Kevin Spacey more. Granted I'm surprised she didn't decide to go with the TV interview episode from earlier in the season. However, I still have yet to finish Season 2. So the finale could be a great episode. She's the kind of dark horse that could easily sneak up and win.

4. CLAIRE DANES - HOMELAND (SHOWTIME)
EPISODE SUBMISSION: "THE STAR"

You simply can't argue with the fact that Danes has momentum in the race because she's won the past two years. Working against her is the critical panning of the third season. The season simply didn't challenge her in the same way the first two seasons did. So while she's the reigning champion and I do think she has good acting moments in her episode, it's gonna be much harder to win a third year in a row. Not ruling it out but I do think there would be more deserving wins this year.

5. KERRY WASHINGTON - SCANDAL (ABC)
EPISODE SUBMISSION: "THE FLUFFER"

Washington had the potential to make history a year ago and the votes still didn't quite swing in her favor. That option is still very much present this year. However, this season was much more spastic for her. The plot just got too convoluted and that could work against her. I'm sure she had great moments in her episode but I honestly don't recall them - plus she's also trying to cover up a baby bump which is also distracting.

6. MICHELLE DOCKERY - DOWNTON ABBEY (PBS)
EPISODE SUBMISSION: "EPISODE ONE"

Voters love Downton Abbey but I'm pretty certain no actor besides Maggie Smith will ever win for the show. They'll just keep getting nominations despite bigger enthusiasm for other potential candidates. It would intrigue me if I was proven wrong. Dockery is only one of two actresses here whose series is also nominated for the top prize which is a sign of support. I don't expect a win for her but literally anything could happen in this field.