First up for analysis is Supporting Actor in a Drama Series.
The nominees in 2014 were:
Jim Carter - Downton Abbey
Josh Charles - The Good Wife
Peter Dinklage - Game of Thrones
Mandy Patinkin - Homeland
Aaron Paul - Breaking Bad (WINNER)
Jon Voight - Ray Donovan
There is bound to be a shake up in the race for Supporting Drama Actor this year. Last year's winner Aaron Paul and Josh Charles are off the ballot (since Breaking Bad ended and Charles is no longer on The Good Wife). That leaves at least two open slots for new nominees this year.
Before I start my speculation on who's mostly likely to pick up a nomination this year, I have to break down the rules for this post. First of all, my 6 picks are essentially the nominees I would select if I was an Emmy voter filling out a ballot. That means I can only pick the actors who submitted themselves for consideration in the field. Plus, I have to honor the Emmy's new rules regarding what classifies as a drama and what is a comedy as well as who is supporting actor vs. a guest actor. As much as I believe Orange Is the New Black is a comedy and Shameless is a drama, I have to honor the way that the organization has decided to classify them. It's also fair to assume that some stuff that could be deemed spoilers for any of the following shows will come up in discussing an actor's performance on said show. And now, without further ado....
My 6 Picks for Who Should Be Nominated for Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series:
- Jonathan Banks in AMC's Better Call Saul: Banks was a true standout in the final few seasons of AMC's classic drama Breaking Bad. The prequel series opened the universe up to the depths of Bob Odenkirk's Saul Goodman aka Jimmy McGill. For most of the season, Banks was delivering a quiet but sturdy performance as Mike in the background ready for more attention when the time came but never demanding it. And then, that time came in the sixth episode of the season, "Five-0." That hour focused on the emotional and tragic realities of his life in a scope never before possible in the shared universe of the two shows. It allowed for richer emotional realities and an even more heartbreaking and tragic performance. Banks sold everything that happened to Mike in the wake of his son's death. Mike's need for retribution and his acts of violence were only made compelling because of Banks' willingness to take the audience along for the ride.
- Christopher Eccleston in HBO's The Leftovers: Eccleston's Reverend Matt Jamison didn't really exist on the show's first season until the third episode "Two Boats and a Helicopter" debuted. And that one hour made him a critical piece for showing the extent of which the Great Departure effected his life and the lives of the community around him. As things continued to get worse for Matt, Eccleston formed a richly dynamic and emotional character who gained instant symmetry in the wake of such upheaval. The pure devastation of Matt's life made for compelling TV.
- Ben Mendelsohn in Netflix's Bloodline: It's a daunting prospect to stand out in a cast that also boasts Kyle Chandler, Sam Shepard, Sissy Spacek, Norbert Leo Butz and Linda Cardellini. And yet, Mendelsohn made it look easy. His Danny Raburn was the tragic figure of the show's first season. The entire narrative revolved around his performance and his ability to upset the perfect lifestyle that his family had been living. It was a dark performance - one that was only rewarded with more tragedy. But Mendelsohn took the audience on a journey that made the whole experience worth it.
- Tobias Menzies in Starz's Outlander: It's easy for a truly despicable and horrifying character such as Menzies' Captain "Black Jack" Randall to be completely one-note. And yet, Menzies crafted the man in such a way that drew the audience in instead of forcing them to look away. He caused a ton of damage and trauma on Claire and Jamie across the epic saga's first season. However, Menzies always maintained a strong connection to this man and how strongly he believes and relishes the moments of true awfulness. That's a tricky line to balance and Menzies did it phenomenally.
- Walton Goggins in FX's Justified: Goggins has been tremendously fun and compelling to watch as Boyd Crowder throughout all of Justified's previous seasons. But in the sixth and final year, Boyd took a strong hold of the season's narrative as he desperately worked to secure his future - no matter what form it would ultimately be. "We dug coal together" were four of the most powerful words spoken in the final moments of any series finale to have aired in the year. Goggins' reading of that one line and the texture of which it has effected his way of life is why he is so deserving to get some recognition this year.
- Tom Cavanagh in The CW's The Flash: Cavanagh's Dr. Harrison Wells easily could have been a mystery character that the audience felt the constant need to solve. Instead, Cavanagh brought forth a character who was always enigmatic in his immense wisdom and in motivating the team to rise up and win while also being deeply emotional and connected to the depths of villainy lurking around the corner. Wells' agenda had much relevancy because of Cavanagh. It didn't make his official turn into evil mastermind any less surprising. But it was satisfying to see a villain so expertly portrayed as a human. Cavanagh brought the humanity to the role the moment he first appeared on the screen until the very end.
- Also in the conversation: George Blagden - History's Vikings; Matt Czuchry - CBS' The Good Wife; James D'Arcy - ABC's Agent Carter; Vincent D'Onofrio - Netflix's Daredevil; Sam Elliott - FX's Justified; Noah Emmerich - FX's The Americans; Rory Kinnear - Showtime's Penny Dreadful; Michael McKean - AMC's Better Call Saul; Joe Morton - ABC's Scandal; Craig T. Nelson - NBC's Parenthood; and Mandy Patinkin - Showtime's Homeland.
My Predictions for Who Will Actually Be Nominated for Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series:
- Jonathan Banks in AMC's Better Call Saul: Banks was a previous nominee in this category just two years ago for Breaking Bad playing the same character. He ultimately lost to Boardwalk Empire's Bobby Cannavale. But he should have no problem re-entering the fold as the character and performance have only gotten better.
- Peter Dinklage in HBO's Game of Thrones: The industry has accepted that Peter Dinklage is the name amongst the fantasy series' deep list of actors that they will recognize in order to have a Game of Thrones appearance on the ballot. He's been nominated for the past four years - and even won in 2011 for Season 1. I'm not a viewer of the HBO drama. But Dinklage should make the list yet again.
- Jon Voight in Showtime's Ray Donovan: The Hollywood-set drama has only grown in popularity in its second year. It's a drama that I could only stand watching for one and a half episodes. And yet, Voight is a very recognizable name in the business. His work didn't have to be good in order for him to get nominated last year. And most people think Season 2 was better than Season 1. So, Voight also seems like a shoo-in (even if the show gets shut out in the rest of the categories).
- Mandy Patinkin in Showtime's Homeland: A year ago Patinkin got his second nomination for playing Saul Berenson on the espionage thriller despite a relatively low-key season. He easily could have fallen off this list if it weren't for Season 4 being such a rebound year that gave him his meatiest material to work with so far. He can realistically be a contender for the top prize.
- Jim Carter in PBS' Downton Abbey: For the past few years, Carter has always been the most obvious candidate to fall of this list. And yet, every year he continues to be nominated. So now, I'm just expecting him to remain until he actually does fall off.
- Ben Mendelsohn in Netflix's Bloodline: This final slot is going to be hard to predict for a number of races. Mendelsohn seems like the most impressive overall candidate even though he lacks strong name recognition like some of his competitors. But the role is fantastic and sometimes that's enough to get into the race. It's what I'm predicting to happen anyways.
- Also in the conversation: Alan Cumming - CBS' The Good Wife; Tim Daly - CBS' Madam Secretary; Patrick Dempsey - Grey's Anatomy; Christopher Eccleston - HBO's The Leftovers; Sam Elliott & Walton Goggins - FX's Justified; Tony Goldwyn & Joe Morton - ABC's Scandal; Michael Kelly - Netflix's House of Cards; Michael McKean - AMC's Better Call Saul; Craig T. Nelson - NBC's Parenthood; John Slattery - AMC's Mad Men; Jussie Smollett - FOX's Empire; and Michael Kenneth Williams & Jeffrey Wright - HBO's Boardwalk Empire.
Do you agree or disagree with my picks? Who do you think should be nominated in the Supporting category this year? Speculate below in the comments!
