Emmy Predictions 2015: Who Will and Should Be Nominated for Supporting Actress in a Drama Series?

Voting has commenced for The 67th Annual Emmy Awards. Until June 26, voters will cast their ballots for the biggest awards in all of television. And now, it's our time to predict on what will happen - and what we would really like to.

Next up for analysis is Supporting Actress in a Drama Series.

The nominees in 2014 were:

        Christine Baranski - The Good Wife
        Joanne Froggatt - Downton Abbey
        Anna Gunn - Breaking Bad (WINNER)
        Lena Headey - Game of Thrones
        Christina Hendricks - Mad Men
        Maggie Smith - Downton Abbey

The only shakeup in this race is that last year's winner Anna Gunn isn't returning. That means a new winner will be crowned after Gunn held the title for the past two years. But last year didn't have the influx of all the Orange Is the New Black ladies either. Their move to the drama categories this year is polarizing - especially after how many total nominations they got for the first season. This field is more competitive than ever before and no one's slot is guaranteed. 

Before I start my speculation on who's mostly likely to pick up a nomination this year, I have to break down the rules for this post. First of all, my 6 picks are essentially the nominees I would select if I was an Emmy voter filling out a ballot. That means I can only pick the actors who submitted themselves for consideration in the field. Plus, I have to honor the Emmy's new rules regarding what classifies as a drama and what is a comedy as well as who is supporting actor vs. a guest actor. As much as I believe Orange Is the New Black is a comedy and Shameless is a drama, I have to honor the way that the organization has decided to classify them. It's also fair to assume that some stuff that could be deemed spoilers for any of the following shows will come up in discussing an actor's performance on said show. And now, without further ado....

My 6 Picks for Who Should Be Nominated for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series:

• Uzo Aduba in Netflix's Orange Is the New Black: Aduba's Suzanne has been an outcast no matter where she is - a slumber party where she wants to talk about dragons instead of princesses or the harsh world inside a prison. She was searching for that intimate love and support but ultimately found it in the wrong place in Lorraine Toussaint's Vee. Her tragic backstory was revealed in the second season and things only got more heartbreaking for her as the season went on and it became more and more clear just how strongly she was being manipulated. Because of Aduba's strong skills, her sympathy was always able to shine through despite Suzanne's violent and erratic outbursts. She has become one of the strongest hearts for the show. She brings an energy to the role unlike anything I've ever fully witnessed before and is always an instant delight despite the tragedy.
• Barbara Rosenblat in Netflix's Orange Is the New Black: Rosenblat's Rosa was simply the character who had cancer in the prison dramedy's first season. A tertiary character rarely seen and nothing more. But when the show decided to further shine the light on her in the second season, it produced some truly unexpected and highly emotional results as the audience got a glimpse into just how much damage she has experienced in her life and how desperately she wants to have happiness again despite a death sentence. It was truly heartbreaking while still showing the strength of the woman who used to rob banks. The final moments of the second season were the most thrilling of the show so far and Rosenblat was the biggest reason why they worked so well.
• Holly Taylor in FX's The Americans: Prestige cable dramas employ teenage child actors in order to show the humanity that must be a part of the protagonists' lives. They never really serve much of a function beyond that. And yet, Taylor's Paige has always been different from the norm and that was elevated even further as she learned the truth about her parents in the third season. Her life was completely uprooted and Taylor absolutely killed it as Paige no longer knew how to keep on living in a world filled with lies. She was the bringer of tension and urgency to the narrative in a way that brought out the difficulties in her parents' line of work. That devastation was much more intimate than any of their regular jobs, and Taylor was brilliantly at the center of it.
• Carrie Coon in HBO's The Leftovers: The central premise of the HBO drama took more away from Coon's Nora than anyone else as her husband, son and daughter all left in the Great Departure. The show gave her emotional material dealing with the loss, but Coon was able to fully bring all the dimensions to the weight of grief. At times, it is all-consuming to the point that it just feels good to not be yourself for awhile. While at others, it's great to receive a simple comfort to remind yourself that the world is still filled with joy. It's even better when happiness can be found again. That was the arc Nora was on throughout the first season and Coon brought such depth and dimension to all of it.
• Mary Steenburgen in FX's Justified: Steenburgen's performance as Katherine Hall really should be in the guest category. But that doesn't and shouldn't take away from how great she was on a drama in its final season. She brought an unpredictability out of so many different characters while still being just as ruthless and lethal as her male counterparts. It's a role that challenged what Steenburgen is capable of as an actress and that was so exciting to see. Katherine was a woman of sophistication. But she still had an agenda just like everyone else. Watching that play out was one of the best experiences throughout the final year.
• Mae Whitman in NBC's Parenthood: Whitman has always been a revelation as Amber Holt on the family drama. She has one of the best cry faces in the entire industry. Period. But an unexpected pregnancy allowed her to explore new areas of her life and fully embrace the transformation she has gone under since the series began. It was a story that overwhelmed her just as much as it excited her. That mixture of enthusiasm and fear was perfectly encapsulated by Whitman and made her giving birth and naming her son after her dying grandfather one of the most emotional moments of the year. 
• Also in the conversation: Amy Acker - CBS' Person of Interest; Danielle Brooks, Laverne Cox, Selenis Leyva, Natasha Lyonne, Taryn Manning, Adrienne C. Moore, Kate Mulgrew, Yael Stone, Lorraine Toussaint & Samira Wiley - Orange Is the New Black; Adelaide Clemens - SundanceTV's Rectify; Caitlin Fitzgerald - Showtime's Masters of Sex; Christina Hendricks - AMC's Mad Men; Maura Tierney - Showtime's The Affair; Kathryn Winnick - History's Vikings; and Bellamy Young - ABC's Scandal.

My Predictions for Who Will Actually Be Nominated for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series:

• Maggie Smith in PBS' Downton Abbey: Smith will continue to get nominations for Downton Abbey as long as the show is on the air. She will never actually attend the awards ceremony. But she will always be nominated. She's Dame Maggie Smith!
• Uzo Aduba in Netflix's Orange Is the New Black: Last year's winner in the Guest Drama Actress category, Aduba is the go-to name to recognize the deep cast associated with OITNB. It's completely deserving (as I spoke about above). But she will be the first person on the list of people to nominate for OITNB. How far down that list voters are willing to go is uncertain. But Aduba seems like a safe bet.
• Lena Headey in HBO's Game of Thrones: The voters tend to go back-and-forth between Headey and Emilia Clarke for the Game of Thrones slot in this category - seemingly depending on who had the better year. As a non-Thrones watcher, I have to rely on what I hear and that conversation largely revolved around Headey having a great year yet again.
• Christina Hendricks in AMC's Mad Men: Hendricks should continue to represent one of Mad Men's last chances to get an acting win at the Emmys. That still remains such a strange phenomena. She definitely had the material in the final season to deserve to remain in contention. Though voters could also push her out in order to bring in new talent.
• Christine Baranski in CBS' The Good Wife: This was an overall weaker season of The Good Wife this year. If there is a sudden influx of new talent in this category, Baranski will probably be one of the names to go. I still think she'll hold onto her slot. But it's also highly likely that someone - like Bloodline's Sissy Spacek or OITNB's Lorraine Toussaint - could come in and push her out.
• Kate Mulgrew in Netflix's Orange Is the New Black: I truly believe that the sixth slot will go to one of the ladies from OITNB. It really is a toss-up between Mulgrew and Toussaint. Mulgrew ultimately gets the upper hand because she has more name awareness and was a nominee in the equivalent comedy field last year. Though there's also urgency in giving the slot to Toussaint because of her only being in the second season.
• Also in the conversation: Amy Brenneman, Carrie Coon & Ann Dowd - HBO's The Leftovers; Danielle Brooks, Laverne Cox, Barbara Rosenblat, Yael Stone, Lorraine Toussaint & Samira Wiley - Orange Is the New Black; Linda Cardellini & Sissy Spacek - Netflix's Bloodline; Emilia Clarke, Sophie Turner & Maisie Williams - HBO's Game of Thrones; Geena Davis - ABC's Grey's Anatomy; Jane Fonda - HBO's The Newsroom; Joanne Froggatt - PBS' Downton Abbey; January Jones - AMC's Mad Men; Archie Panjabi - CBS' The Good Wife; Mary Steenburgen - FX's Justified; Maura Tierney - Showtime's The Affair; and Alfre Woodard - NBC's State of Affairs.

Do you agree or disagree with my picks? Who do you think should be nominated in the Supporting category this year? Speculate below in the comments!