Saturday, August 20, 2016

Emmy Predictions 2016 - Who Will Likely Win for Writing in a Limited Series, Movie or Dramatic Special?

The nominations are in for The 68th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards. The final round of voting is now taking place. So now, it's time to speculate on who is likely to win in each major category. Next up for analysis is Writing for a Limited Series, Movie or Dramatic Special.





The Nominees:
  • Scott Alexander & Larry Karaszewski for FX's The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story - Episode: "From the Ashes of Tragedy"
  • Joe Robert Cole for FX's The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story - Episode: "The Race Card"
  • Bob DeLaurentis for FX's Fargo - Episode: "Loplop"
  • D.V. DeVincentis for FX's The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story - Episode: "Marcia, Marcia, Marcia"
  • David Farr for AMC's The Night Manager
  • Noah Hawley for FX's Fargo - Episode: "Palindrome"

Vote splitting is always a major concern in any Emmy category with more than one nominee from the same show. I don't think it's that much of a problem in the acting races. But when it comes to the writing and directing fields, those worries do have more merit. With actors, they are more visible to voters if there are multiple nominees in the category. Voters get to see the actors in their roles for more than one episode. That kind of exposure can really help propel them to victory. But there is no such visual connection for writers and directors. How one episode of The People v. O.J. Simpson was written has no bearing or effect on the other nominations from the show. They all stood out for distinct reasons. But that makes it difficult for voters to rally around the same hour. The consensus usually gravitates towards premieres or finales. So, that would mean Noah Hawley and Scott Alexander & Larry Karaszewski are frontrunners for this award. But again, those other episodes of Fargo and The People v. O.J. Simpson were special too. That means almost anything could happen in this field.

Alexander and Karaszewski should be honored for being the creative minds behind The People v. O.J. Simpson. It's frequently been billed as a Ryan Murphy project. But they are the ones who came up with the idea and structured the season. They are only nominated for the tremendous first episode of the limited series. But their influence and creative decisions were felt throughout the entire season. Joe Robert Cole and D.V. DeVincentis did a phenomenal job with their individual episodes. The "Marcia, Marcia, Marcia" hour was one of the best episodes of television this year. So, it wouldn't be shocking in the slightest if it prevailed in this category. Hopefully, it leads to a Sarah Paulson win in the Lead Actress field. But who do voters side with: the writer of the best episode or the lead writers of the show that produced the best episode?

Fargo faces a similar problem. Noah Hawley has rightfully gotten so much praise for how he has adapted the Coen Brother film for TV. The second season was my favorite show of 2015. Hawley is the one who had the creative vision for the season. "Palindrome" is an excellent conclusion that goes through a wide array of phenomenal and surprising emotions. "Loplop" was a solid episode as well with Peggy and Ed needing to go on the run. So, it too becomes a question of which episode do the voters support? Hawley surprisingly didn't win for the first season in this category. He lost to Steven Moffat for Sherlock. He has an Emmy because Fargo still won Best Limited Series that year. It still feels like he deserves to win here as well though. But that feeling feels justified for the writers of The People v. O.J. Simpson as well.

If vote splitting does occur, that means David Farr could sneak in for the victory. He's the only contender in this category nominated for more than just one episode. He was the sole writer on The Night Manager. So that means, voters could look at the entire season as his submission. That makes him a strong contender - especially if the voters can't reach a consensus with the other multiple nominees. Fargo and The People v. O.J. Simpson are the two shows getting the majority of attention in the limited categories. That's rightfully so too. They both had some phenomenal seasons. But The Night Manager should win something as well. It may be an uphill battle to win here. It's not completely out of the question though.

Should Win: Noah Hawley
Will Win: Scott Alexander & Larry Karaszewski
Dark Horse: David Farr