Emmy Predictions 2018 - Who Will Likely Be Nominated for Lead Actress in a Comedy Series?

From June 11 to June 25, 2018, voting is taking place for The 70th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards. To add to the excitement of the past year in television, I'm providing analysis on which shows and performers are likely to get nominated this year. Next up is Lead Actress in a Comedy Series.

2017 Nominees:

        Pamela Adlon for FX's Better Things
        Jane Fonda for Netflix's Grace and Frankie
        Allison Janney for CBS' Mom
        Ellie Kemper for Netflix's Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
        Julia Louis-Dreyfus for HBO's Veep (WINNER)
        Tracee Ellis Ross for ABC's Black-ish
        Lily Tomlin for Netflix's Grace and Frankie

For the past six years, Julia Louis-Dreyfus has won the Emmy for Lead Actress in a Comedy Series. And now, a new winner is going to be crowned in 2018 because Veep had to delay production on its final season so that Louis-Dreyfus could get treatment for breast cancer. She's back on the road to recovery now with production on the HBO comedy set to begin shortly so it can return to this race next year. But now, it's exciting to think about what will happen now that she's out of the running. The voters easily could just bring back the six other nominees from last year. That would still be an impressive ballot. It would just be ignoring the breakout new shows from the past year that had stellar female performances. As such, I can easily narrow this category down to five nominees who seem like locks for nominations. But that sixth slot is a huge wild card. I've always underestimated the star power of Jane Fonda and Lily Tomlin in this race. They could easily cover up those final slots on the ballot. But I'm also hoping for the voters to throw in a surprise - like Issa Rae, Kristen Bell or Justina Machado.

So now, here's my thoughts on the actors most likely to be nominated for Lead Actress in a Comedy Series:

1. Allison Janney for CBS' Mom
2. Tracee Ellis Ross for ABC's Black-ish
3. Rachel Brosnahan for Amazon's The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
4. Alison Brie for Netflix's GLOW
5. Pamela Adlon for FX's Better Things
6. Lily Tomlin for Netflix's Grace and Frankie

And now, for some serious threats that could break into the list:

1. Jane Fonda for Netflix's Grace and Frankie
2. Justina Machado for Netflix's One Day at a Time
3. Debra Messing for NBC's Will & Grace
4. Ellie Kemper for Netflix's Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
5. Kristen Bell for NBC's The Good Place
6. Frankie Shaw for Showtime's SMILF
7. Issa Rae for HBO's Insecure
8. Tiffany Haddish for TBS' The Last O.G.
9. Drew Barrymore for Netflix's Santa Clarita Diet
10. Logan Browning for Netflix's Dear White People
11. Minnie Driver for ABC's Speechless
12. Anna Faris for CBS' Mom
13. Jessica Barden for Netflix's The End of the F***ing World
14. DeWanda Wise for Netflix's She's Gotta Have It
15. Emmy Rossum for Showtime's Shameless
16. Constance Wu for ABC's Fresh Off the Boat

Some considerable long-shots:

1. Roseanne Barr for ABC's Roseanne
2. Jennifer Jason Leigh for Netflix's Atypical
3. Sarah Jessica Parker for HBO's Divorce
4. Carrie Brownstein for IFC's Portlandia
5. Rachel Bloom for The CW's Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
6. Gina Rodriguez for The CW's Jane the Virgin
7. America Ferrera for NBC's Superstore
8. Aya Cash for FXX's You're the Worst
9. Zooey Deschanel for FOX's New Girl
10. Alia Shawkat for TBS' Search Party
11. Catherine O'Hara for Pop's Schitt's Creek
12. Maria Bamford for Netflix's Lady Dynamite
13. Ilana Glazer and Abbi Jacobson for Comedy Central's Broad City
14. Michaela Watkins for Hulu's Casual
15. Lola Kirke for Amazon's Mozart in the Jungle
16. Yara Shahidi for Freeform's Grown-ish
17. Julie Klausner for Hulu's Difficult People
18. Kathy Bates for Netflix's Disjointed

And now, just some colorful oddities who still have an outside chance:

1. Tracey Ullman for HBO's Tracey Ullman's Show
2. Lennon Parham and Jessica St. Clair for USA's Playing House
3. Natalie Zea for TBS' The Detour
4. Mindy Kaling for Hulu's The Mindy Project
5. Andrea Savage for TruTV's I'm Sorry
6. Patricia Heaton for ABC's The Middle
7. Melissa Barrera and Mishel Prada for Starz's Vida
8. Sutton Foster for TV Land's Younger
9. Cobie Smulders for Netflix's Friends From College
10. Jenna Fischer for ABC's Splitting Up Together
11. Amy Sedaris for TruTV's At Home with Amy Sedaris
12. Ella Purnell for Starz's Sweetbitter
13. Shoshannah Stern for Sundance Now's This Close

What do you think? Do you agree or disagree with my choices? Let me know in the comments below!