Emmy Predictions 2018 - Who Will Likely Be Nominated for Lead Actor in a Drama Series?

From June 11 to June 25, 2018, voting is taking place for The 70th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards. To add to the excitement of the past year in television, I'm providing analysis on which shows and performers are likely to get nominated this year. Next up is Lead Actor in a Drama Series.

2017 Nominees:

        Sterling K. Brown for NBC's This Is Us (WINNER)
        Anthony Hopkins for HBO's Westworld
        Bob Odenkirk for AMC's Better Call Saul
        Matthew Rhys for FX's The Americans
        Liev Schreiber for Showtime's Ray Donovan
        Kevin Spacey for Netflix's House of Cards
        Milo Ventimiglia for NBC's This Is Us

This is yet another category where there is expected to be a fair amount of turnover. There are a couple of actors who will easily sail through to nominations once again. It seems very likely that the This Is Us men, Matthew Rhys and Liev Schreiber will return. They are the only nominees from last year who are once again eligible. That leaves two slots at least available to newcomers. Anthony Hopkins will be competing in the supporting category this year - where he should have been last year - but now there are two stars from Westworld angling to replace him in this race. So, Jeffrey Wright and Ed Harris are options here. Moreover, a Game of Thrones star is competing in lead actor for the first time since Sean Bean. Kit Harington did get nominated the last time he was eligible. That was his first nomination. And thus, he too is a possibility. Or perhaps former winner Rami Malek will return to the race. Or it's also possible that newcomers such as Freddie Highmore, J.K. Simmons, Donald Sutherland, Jonathan Groff, Jason Mitchell and Jason Bateman could make an impact here.

So now, here's my thoughts on the actors most likely to be nominated for Lead Actor in a Drama Series:

1. Sterling K. Brown for NBC's This Is Us
2. Milo Ventimiglia for NBC's This Is Us
3. Matthew Rhys for FX's The Americans
4. Liev Schreiber for Showtime's Ray Donovan
5. Freddie Highmore for ABC's The Good Doctor
6. J.K. Simmons for Starz's Counterpart

And now, for some serious threats that could break into the list:

1. Kit Harington for HBO's Game of Thrones
2. Jeffrey Wright and Ed Harris for HBO's Westworld
3. Jason Bateman for Netflix's Ozark
4. Donald Sutherland for FX's Trust
5. Jonathan Groff and Holt McCallany for Netflix's Mindhunter
6. Rami Malek for USA's Mr. Robot
7. Brendan Gleeson and Harry Treadaway for Audience's Mr. Mercedes
8. James Franco for HBO's The Deuce
9. Paul Giamatti and Damian Lewis for Showtime's Billions
10. Jason Mitchell for Showtime's The Chi
11. Sam Heughan for Starz's Outlander
12. Dylan Minnette for Netflix's 13 Reasons Why

Some considerable long-shots:

1. Aaron Paul and Hugh Dancy for Hulu's The Path
2. Scoot McNairy and Lee Pace for AMC's Halt and Catch Fire
3. Dan Stevens fox FX's Legion
4. Giovanni Ribisi for Amazon's Sneaky Pete
5. Pedro Pascal for Netflix's Narcos
6. David Duchovny for FOX's The X-Files
7. Cress Williams for The CW's Black Lightning
8. Jon Bernthal for Netflix's The Punisher
9. Terrence Howard for FOX's Empire
10. James Spader for NBC's The Blacklist
11. Richard Armitage for Epix's Berlin Station
12. Michael Kenneth Williams and James Purefoy for SundanceTV's Hap and Leonard
13. Peter Krause for FOX's 9-1-1
14. Titus Welliver for Amazon's Bosch
15. Alan Cumming for CBS' Instinct

And now, just some colorful oddities who still have an outside chance:

1. Matt Czuchry for FOX's The Resident
2. Joel Kinnaman for Netflix's Altered Carbon
3. Keith David for OWN's Greenleaf
4. Kofi Siriboe for OWN's Queen Sugar
5. Damson Idris for FX's Snowfall
6. Toby Stephens for Netflix's Lost in Space
7. David Boreanaz for CBS' SEAL Team
8. Shemar Moore for CBS' S.W.A.T.
9. Ryan Kwanten for Sony Crackle's The Oath
10. Jim Sturgess for Hulu's Hard Sun

What do you think? Do you agree or disagree with my choices? Let me know in the comments below!