Emmy Predictions 2019 - Who Will Likely Be Nominated for Lead Actor in a Drama Series?

From June 10 to June 24, 2019, voting is taking place for The 71st Annual Primetime Emmy Awards. As such, it's fun to look at which actors and shows have the best chances of actually being nominated this year. So, here is how I see the race for Lead Actor in a Drama Series.

2018 Nominees:

        Jason Bateman for Netflix's Ozark
        Sterling K. Brown for NBC's This Is Us
        Ed Harris for HBO's Westworld
        Matthew Rhys for FX's The Americans (WINNER)
        Milo Ventimiglia for NBC's This Is Us
        Jeffrey Wright for HBO's Westworld

There may be a lot of weirdness in the drama categories this year. However, the race for Lead Actor actually has four contenders who have previously been nominated - Sterling K. Brown, Milo Ventimiglia, Jason Bateman and Bob Odenkirk. Those four could easily fill out the top of the ballot because Emmy voters are notorious with their familiarity. There isn't even the certainty that Game of Thrones will have a presence in this field. Kit Harington has been nominated only once before - in the supporting category. When he and Emilia Clarke moved up to lead last year, neither of them garnered nominations. That trend could very much continue because this is a very competitive category. The leading men from Pose, Bodyguard, Succession and Homecoming could also have major breakthroughs in this particular category. That means this could be a field of either the same as years past or one of complete transformation.

So now, here are the actors most likely to be nominated:

1. Sterling K. Brown for NBC's This Is Us
2. Bob Odenkirk for AMC's Better Call Saul
3. Jason Bateman for Netflix's Ozark
4. Billy Porter for FX's Pose
5. Richard Madden for Netflix's Bodyguard
6. Stephan James for Amazon's Homecoming

Next are some serious threats that could break into the list:

1. Milo Ventimiglia for NBC's This Is Us
2. Brian Cox and Jeremy Strong for HBO's Succession
3. Kit Harington for HBO's Game of Thrones
4. Liev Schreiber for Showtime's Ray Donovan
5. Diego Luna and Michael Peña for Netflix's Narcos: Mexico
6. Paul Giamatti and Damian Lewis for Showtime's Billions
7. J.K. Simmons for Starz's Counterpart
8. Wyatt Russell and Brent Jennings for AMC's Lodge 49
9. Cody Fern for FX's American Horror Story: Apocalypse
10. Penn Badgley for Lifetime's You
11. Sam Heughan for Starz's Outlander
12. James Franco for HBO's The Deuce
13. Dominic West for Showtime's The Affair

Here are some considerable long-shots:

1. John Krasinski for Amazon's Jack Ryan
2. Billy Bob Thornton for Amazon's Goliath
3. Bill Pullman for USA's The Sinner
4. Asa Butterfield for Netflix's Sex Education
5. Freddie Highmore for ABC's The Good Doctor
6. Kevin Costner for Paramount's Yellowstone
7. Nathan Fillion for ABC's The Rookie
8. Brendan Gleeson and Harry Treadaway for Audience's Mr. Mercedes
9. Michael Dorman for Amazon's Patriot
10. JD Pardo for FX's Mayans MC
11. Sean Penn for Hulu's The First
12. Ian McShane and Ricky Whittle for Starz's American Gods
13. Aiden Gillen and Michael Malarkey for History's Project Blue Book

And finally, just some colorful oddities who still have an outside chance:

1. Jason Ralph for Syfy's The Magicians
2. Peter Krause for FOX's 9-1-1
3. Kofi Siriboe for OWN's Queen Sugar
4. Aaron Stanford for Syfy's 12 Monkeys
5. Daniel Wu for AMC's Into the Badlands
6. Taye Diggs and Daniel Ezra for The CW's All American
7. Max Irons for Audience's Condor
8. Andrew Koji for Cinemax's Warrior
9. Damson Idris for FX's Snowfall
10. Giovanni Ribisi for Amazon's Sneaky Pete

What do you think? Do you agree or disagree with my choices? Let me know in the comments below!