Emmy Predictions 2020 - Who Will Likely Be Nominated for Lead Actor in a Drama Series?

From July 2 to July 13, 2020, voting is taking place for The 72nd Annual Primetime Emmy Awards. As such, it's fun to look at which actors and shows have the best chances of actually being nominated this year. So, these are my predictions for who will be nominated for Lead Actor in a Drama Series.

2019 Nominees:

        Jason Bateman for Netflix's Ozark
        Sterling K. Brown for NBC's This Is Us
        Kit Harington for HBO's Game of Thrones
        Bob Odenkirk for AMC's Better Call Saul
        Billy Porter for FX's Pose (WINNER)
        Milo Ventimiglia for NBC's This Is Us

This category could easily be a replay of the nominees from last year. Kit Harington is the only actor who won't be back. And yet, it's not a given that all of the previous nominees will return to this field. HBO's Succession didn't make a dent in this category a year ago. And yet, both Brian Cox and Jeremy Strong have to be seen as strong competitors. Similarly, NBC's This Is Us may start fading into the background. The actors on that show have always done well. But three of them are now submitted in this category - with Justin Hartley hoping to join Sterling K. Brown and Milo Ventimiglia. It's doubtful they will cover half the nominees. In fact, they may be reduced down to one nomination amongst the three of them. That would likely translate to Brown given his status as a former winner. Ben Mendelsohn, Aaron Paul and Rami Malek are also hoping to make the list and have legitimate shots as they've previously won Emmys. Moreover, Tobias Menzies has the full backing of The Crown which has netted numerous nominations and wins for the actors in the past. Plus, there are so many big names in small projects with some critical acclaim that could sneak into this race. Nothing should be seen as a given. But that is always the case when it comes to making awards predictions.

For the 2020 awards ceremony, the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences decided to tie the number of nominations to the number of submissions in each category. For Lead Actor in a Drama Series, 142 actors were eligible on the ballot. That will translate to six nominees in this category.

Actors most likely to be nominated:

1. Jason Bateman for Netflix's Ozark
2. Bob Odenkirk for AMC's Better Call Saul
3. Billy Porter for FX's Pose
4. Brian Cox for HBO's Succession
5. Sterling K. Brown for NBC's This Is Us
6. Jeremy Strong for HBO's Succession

Serious threats that could break through:

1. Tobias Menzies for Netflix's The Crown
2. Milo Ventimiglia and Justin Hartley for NBC's This Is Us
3. Ben Mendelsohn for HBO's The Outsider
4. Aaron Paul for HBO's Westworld
5. Steve Carell for AppleTV+'s The Morning Show
6. Rami Malek for USA's Mr. Robot
7. Al Pacino and Logan Lerman for Amazon's Hunters
8. Patrick Stewart for CBS All Access' Star Trek: Picard
9. Liev Schreiber for Showtime's Ray Donovan
10. Forest Whitaker for Epix's Godfather of Harlem
11. Jonathan Groff and Holt McCallany for Netflix's Mindhunter
12. Ben Kingsley for Epix's Perpetual Grace, LTD
13. Stephan James for Amazon's Homecoming
14. John Malkovich for HBO's The New Pope
15. Sam Heughan for Starz's Outlander
16. Dan Stevens for FX's Legion
17. Idris Elba for BBC America's Luther

Some considerable long-shots:

1. Billy Bob Thornton for Amazon's Goliath
2. Paul Giamatti and Damian Lewis for Showtime's Billions
3. Henry Cavill for Netflix's The Witcher
4. James Franco for HBO's The Deuce
5. Penn Badgley for Netflix's You
6. Matt Bomer and Bill Pullman for USA's The Sinner
7. Michael Sheen and Tom Payne for FOX's Prodigal Son
8. Kevin Bacon and Aldis Hodge for Showtime's City on a Hill
9. Diego Luna and Scoot McNairy for Netflix's Narcos: Mexico
10. Orlando Bloom for Amazon's Carnival Row
11. Kevin Costner for Paramount's Yellowstone
12. Dominic West for Showtime's The Affair
13. Daveed Diggs for TNT's Snowpiercer
14. Karl Urban and Jack Quaid for Amazon's The Boys
15. Akili McDowell for OWN's David Makes Man
16. Joel Kinnaman for AppleTV+'s For All Mankind
17. Freddie Highmore for ABC's The Good Doctor
18. Daniel Zovatto for Showtime's Penny Dreadful: City of Angels

Colorful oddities who still have an outside chance:

1. Omari Hardwick for Starz's Power
2. Mike Colter for CBS' Evil
3. Toby Kebbell for AppleTV+'s Servant
4. John Krasinski for Amazon's Jack Ryan
5. Anthony Mackie for Netflix's Altered Carbon
6. Pedro Pascal for Disney+'s The Mandalorian
7. Nicholas Pinnock for ABC's For Life
8. Murray Bartlett for Netflix's Armistead Maupin's Tales of the City
9. Keith David for OWN's Greenleaf
10. Shawn Hatosy for TNT's Animal Kingdom
11. James Badge Dale for Starz's Hightown
12. Jason Momoa for AppleTV+'s See
13. Connor Jessup for Netflix's Locke & Key
14. Martin Henderson for Netflix's Virgin River

What do you think? Do you agree or disagree with my choices? Let me know in the comments below!