Emmy Predictions 2020 - Who Will Likely Be Nominated for Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie?

From July 2 to July 13, 2020, voting took place for The 72nd Annual Primetime Emmy Awards. As such, it's fun to look at which actors and shows have the best chances of actually being nominated this year. So, these are my predictions for who will be nominated for Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie.

2019 Nominees:

        Mahershala Ali for HBO's True Detective
        Benicio del Toro for Showtime's Escape at Dannemora
        Hugh Grant for Amazon's A Very English Scandal
        Jared Harris for HBO's Chernobyl
        Jharrel Jerome for Netflix's When They See Us (WINNER)
        Sam Rockwell for FX's Fosse/Verdon

There are five clear frontrunners in this category. It's silly to think that anyone could potentially come in as a surprise. The nominees will more than likely be Russell Crowe, Jeremy Irons, Hugh Jackman, Aaron Paul and Mark Ruffalo. Because the voters will select five nominees this year as opposed to the six from a year ago, that will be the category. Those making predictions don't have to worry about which actor has enough support to slide into that sixth slot without really having the potential of winning. Here, it truly can be seen as a five-way race between five actors who all did tremendous work this past season. Sure, some of their projects had less than ideal support or acclaim. However, their specific roles were central and flashy. That appeals to Emmy voters in such a major way. Plus, HBO and Netflix have proven themselves capable of campaigning hard for their actors. They are passionate about these shows and performers. As such, it's futile to think that anything surprising will happen here. Could it happen? Sure. Anything is theoretically possible. One of those five being snubbed would be one of the bigger surprises come nomination morning though.

For the 2020 awards ceremony, the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences decided to tie the number of nominations to the number of submissions in each category. For Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie, 45 actors were eligible on the ballot. That will translate to five nominees in this category.

Actors most likely to be nominated:

1. Mark Ruffalo for HBO's I Know This Much Is True
2. Hugh Jackman for HBO's Bad Education
3. Aaron Paul for Netflix's El Camino: A Breaking Bad Movie
4. Jeremy Irons for HBO's Watchmen
5. Russell Crowe for Showtime's The Loudest Voice

Serious threats that could break through:

1. Paul Mescal for Hulu's Normal People
2. Jeremy Pope and David Corenswet for Netflix's Hollywood
3. Chris Evans for AppleTV+'s Defending Jacob
4. Andre Holland for Netflix's The Eddy
5. Sacha Baron Cohen for Netflix's The Spy
6. Nick Offerman for FX on Hulu's Devs

Some considerable long-shots:

1. Andre Braugher and Woody Harrelson for ABC's Live in Front of a Studio Audience: "All in the Family" and "Good Times"
2. Matthew Macfadyen for AMC's Quiz
3. Willem Dafoe for Disney+'s Togo
4. Guy Pearce for FX's A Christmas Carol
5. Morgan Spector for HBO's The Plot Against America
6. Steven Pasquale for Netflix's American Son
7. Rory Kinnear and Russell Tovey for HBO's Years and Years

Colorful oddities who still have an outside chance:

1. Claes Bang for Netflix's Dracula
2. Adam Scott for NBC's A Parks and Recreation Special
3. Jason Clarke for HBO's Catherine the Great
4. Jason Segel for AMC's Dispatches From Elsewhere
5. David Thewlis for National Geographic's Barkskins
6. Blair Underwood for Netflix's Self Made
7. Jackson White for HBO's Mrs. Fletcher

What do you think? Do you agree or disagree with my choices? Let me know in the comments below!