Emmy Predictions 2020 - Who Will Likely Be Nominated for Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie?

From July 2 to July 13, 2020, voting took place for The 72nd Annual Primetime Emmy Awards. As such, it's fun to look at which actors and shows have the best chances of actually being nominated this year. So, these are my predictions for who will be nominated for Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie.

2019 Nominees:

        Amy Adams for HBO's Sharp Objects
        Patricia Arquette for Showtime's Escape at Dannemora
        Aunjanue Ellis for Netflix's When They See Us
        Joey King for Hulu's The Act
        Niecy Nash for Netflix's When They See Us
        Michelle Williams for FX's Fosse/Verdon (WINNER)

With Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie, there was a clear group of five who were the frontrunners. With Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie, there is a strong group of four that should sail through to compete for the ultimate prize. It would be shocking if Cate Blanchett, Regina King, Merritt Wever or Kaitlyn Dever didn't make the list. The only uncertainty is what the voters will do with that fifth slot. It seems likely they will recognize one of the leads from Little Fires Everywhere. They could actually go for both Reese Witherspoon and Kerry Washington if they wanted to snub one of the stronger contenders. Dever's performance is so powerful but she lacks the kind of name recognition present with the other options. Unbelievable has so much support from Netflix across the board though that it seems likely to do well in every category it is competing in. So if it's a choice between the Little Fires Everywhere leads, it's truly a coin flip. Witherspoon starred in three shows this past year. She may not get nominated for any of them. That would be stunning. This may be her best shot. Washington is just as deserving though. She is submitted twice in this field which could split some of her support. However, it's much more likely for her to be nominated for the Hulu drama instead of Netflix's film adaptation of American Son. So, this race has some locks seemingly while still remaining open to some surprises. That's honestly the best kind of category heading into nominations morning.

For the 2020 awards ceremony, the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences decided to tie the number of nominations to the number of submissions in each category. For Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie, 61 actresses were eligible on the ballot. That will translate to five nominees in this category.

Actors most likely to be nominated:

1. Regina King for HBO's Watchmen
2. Cate Blanchett for FX on Hulu's Mrs. America
3. Merritt Wever for Netflix's Unbelievable
4. Kaitlyn Dever for Netflix's Unbelievable
5. Reese Witherspoon for Hulu's Little Fires Everywhere

Serious threats that could break through:

1. Kerry Washington for Hulu's Little Fires Everywhere
2. Shira Haas for Netflix's Unorthodox
3. Daisy Edgar-Jones for Hulu's Normal People
4. Aunjanue Ellis for Lifetime's The Clark Sisters: First Ladies of Gospel
5. Helen Mirren for HBO's Catherine the Great
6. Michelle Dockery for AppleTV+'s Defending Jacob
7. Kathryn Hahn for HBO's Mrs. Fletcher
8. Zoe Kazan for HBO's The Plot Against America

Some considerable long-shots:

1. Viola Davis and Marisa Tomei for ABC's Live In Front of a Studio Audience: "All in the Family" and "Good Times"
2. Judith Light for Amazon's Transparent Musicale Finale
3. Sonoya Mizuno for FX on Hulu's Devs
4. Sian Clifford for AMC's Quiz
5. Lizzy Caplan for Hulu's Castle Rock
6. Octavia Spencer for Netflix's Self Made
7. Megan Hilty and Jessie Mueller for Lifetime's Patsy & Loretta
8. Ellie Kemper for Netflix's Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: Kimmy vs. the Reverend

Colorful oddities who still have an outside chance:

1. Amy Poehler for NBC's A Parks and Recreation Special
2. Niecy Nash for Lifetime's Stolen by My Mother: The Kamiyah Mobley Story
3. Kerry Washington for Netflix's American Son
4. Anne Reid for HBO's Years and Years
5. Ginnifer Goodwin and Kathleen Turner for Netflix's Dolly Parton's Heartstrings
6. Joanna Kulig for Netflix's The Eddy
7. Rosario Dawson for USA's Briarpatch

What do you think? Do you agree or disagree with my choices? Let me know in the comments below!