Emmy Predictions 2020 - Who Will Likely Be Nominated for Supporting Actor in a Drama Series?

From July 2 to July 13, 2020, voting is taking place for The 72nd Annual Primetime Emmy Awards. As such, it's fun to look at which actors and shows have the best chances of actually being nominated this year. So, these are my predictions for who will be nominated for Supporting Actor in a Drama Series.

2019 Nominees:

        Alfie Allen for HBO's Game of Thrones
        Jonathan Banks for AMC's Better Call Saul
        Nikolaj Coster-Waldau for HBO's Game of Thrones
        Peter Dinklage for HBO's Game of Thrones (WINNER)
        Giancarlo Esposito for AMC's Better Call Saul
        Michael Kelly for Netflix's House of Cards
        Chris Sullivan for NBC's This Is Us

Making predictions in this category is incredibly chaotic. Seven actors were nominated a year ago. Eight will be nominated this year. Moreover, half of the field won't be returning. Sure, there are some past nominees whose shows didn't air in the eligibility window for 2019. However, that may not guarantee a slot for them again in this highly competitive race. At the moment, I am only confident in saying Jonathan Banks and Bradley Whitford will be nominated. Their co-stars from Better Call Saul and The Handmaid's Tale could join them. Giancarlo Esposito and Joseph Fiennes are past nominees as well. However, that will depend entirely on the preferences of the voters as compared to several other worthy contenders. HBO's Succession didn't make a splash in any of the acting races for its first season. That trend could continue. Or Kieran Culkin, Matthew Macfadyen, Nicholas Braun and Alan Ruck could prove themselves as a dominating force. That is an open question. Meanwhile, some shows have solid track records in getting their actors nominated. That list includes Ozark, The Crown, Westworld and This Is Us. They all have at least one actor who can make a compelling case to voters. Some of them have more than one. The voters have largely shifted away from designating only one actor from each show in each category to serve as the surrogate for the overall acting. Now, these races can fundamentally inform people which shows actually have momentum and will likely have big nights when it comes to the victories across the board. This race will be a key factor in determining that. Expect shakeups and surprising nominees.

For the 2020 awards ceremony, the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences decided to tie the number of nominations to the number of submissions in each category. For Supporting Actor in a Drama Series, 355 actors were eligible on the ballot. That will translate to eight nominees in this category.

Actors most likely to be nominated:

1. Jonathan Banks for AMC's Better Call Saul
2. Bradley Whitford for Hulu's The Handmaid's Tale
3. David Harbour for Netflix's Stranger Things
4. Kieran Culkin for HBO's Succession
5. Billy Crudup for AppleTV+'s The Morning Show
6. Tom Pelphrey for Netflix's Ozark
7. Matthew Macfadyen for HBO's Succession
8. Giancarlo Esposito for AMC's Better Call Saul

Serious threats that could break through:

1. Mandy Patinkin for Showtime's Homeland
2. Chris Sullivan, Griffin Dunne and Asante Blackk for NBC's This Is Us
3. Jeffrey Wright, Ed Harris and Vincent Cassel for HBO's Westworld
4. Josh O'Connor for Netflix's The Crown
5. Joseph Fiennes for Hulu's The Handmaid's Tale
6. Nicholas Braun and Alan Ruck for HBO's Succession
7. Alexander Skarsgård, Adam Scott, Denis O'Hare, James Tupper and Jeffrey Nordling for HBO's Big Little Lies
8. Tony Dalton, Michael Mando and Patrick Fabian for AMC's Better Call Saul
9. Kim Bodnia for BBC America's Killing Eve
10. Jon Voight and Alan Alda for Showtime's Ray Donovan
11. Delroy Lindo, John Larroquette, Michael Boatman and Hugh Dancy for CBS All Access' The Good Fight
12. Aaron Paul, Ron Cephas Jones and Mekhi Phifer for AppleTV+'s Truth Be Told
13. Christian Slater, BD Wong, Michael Cristofer and Martin Wallström for USA's Mr. Robot
14. Théodore Pellerin and Mel Rodriguez for Showtime's On Becoming a God in Central Florida
15. Mark Duplass, Nestor Carbonell, Jack Davenport and Desean K. Terry for AppleTV+'s The Morning Show
16. Dylan Baker, Josh Radnor and Saul Rubinek for Amazon's Hunters
17. Vincent D'Onofrio and Giancarlo Esposito for Epix's Godfather of Harlem
18. Joe Keery, Finn Wolfhard, Noah Schnapp, Gaten Matarazzo, Caleb McLaughlin, Charlie Heaton, Dacre Montgomery, Cary Elwes and Brett Gelman for Netflix's Stranger Things
19. Dyllón Burnside, Angel Bismark Curiel and Ryan Jamaal Swain for FX's Pose
20. Lin-Manuel Miranda and James McAvoy for HBO's His Dark Materials
21. Jude Law for HBO's The New Pope

Some considerable long-shots:

1. Chris Cooper for Amazon's Homecoming
2. Chris Messina for USA's The Sinner
3. Yul Vazquez and Marc Menchaca for HBO's The Outsider
4. Jonathan Pryce, Paul Schneider and Ato Essandoh for Amazon's Tales From the Loop
5. Michael Kelly and Wendell Pierce for Amazon's Jack Ryan
6. Richard Rankin and César Domboy for Starz's Outlander
7. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Anthony Mackie, Damson Idris and Topher Grace for Netflix's Black Mirror
8. Dennis Quaid for Amazon's Goliath
9. Nick Sandow for Netflix's Orange Is the New Black
10. Jacob Elordi, Eric Dane and Angus Cloud for HBO's Euphoria
11. Robin Lord Taylor and James Scully for Netflix's You
12. Asia Kate Dillon, David Costabile, Kelly AuCoin, Jeffrey DeMunn and Corey Stoll for Showtime's Billions
13. Danny Huston, Neal McDonough, Luke Grimes, Cole Hauser, Wes Bentley and Gil Birmingham for Paramount's Yellowstone
14. Mark O'Brien and Rory Culkin for Showtime's City on a Hill
15. David Krumholtz and Chris Coy for HBO's The Deuce
16. Nathan Lane, Rory Kinnear and Michael Gladis for Showtime's Penny Dreadful: City of Angels
17. Jimmi Simpson, Timothy Spall, Damon Herriman, Chris Conrad and Luis Guzman for Epix's Perpetual Grace, LTD
18. Antony Starr, Chace Crawford, Jessie T. Usher, Laz Alonso and Tomer Capon for Amazon's The Boys
19. Harry Treadaway, Santiago Cabrera and Evan Evagora for CBS All Access' Star Trek: Picard
20. Jared Harris, Simon McBurney, David Gyasi and Andrew Gower for Amazon's Carnival Row

Colorful oddities who still have an outside chance:

1. Michael Emerson and Aasif Mandvi for CBS' Evil
2. David Thewlis for Amazon's The Feed
3. Bill Irwin for FX's Legion
4. Michael Dorman for AppleTV+'s For All Mankind
5. Siddharth Dhananjay for Amazon's Undone
6. Shameik Moore and Ashton Sanders for Hulu's Wu-Tang: An American Saga
7. Michael Ealy and Jake Johnson for ABC's Stumptown
8. Lou Diamond Phillips for FOX's Prodigal Son
9. Rupert Grint for AppleTV+'s Servant
10. Carl Weathers for Disney+'s The Mandalorian
11. Jim Sturgess and Louis Herthum for AppleTV+'s Home Before Dark
12. Timothy Busfield and Boris McGiver for ABC's For Life
13. Jason Ritter for Netflix's Raising Dion
14. Harold Perrineau for TNT's Claws
15. Alex Høgh Anderson, Alexander Ludwig, Jordan Patrick Smith and Marco Ilsø for History's Vikings
16. Tim Matheson for Netflix's Virgin River
17. Mike O'Malley for TNT's Snowpiercer

What do you think? Do you agree or disagree with my choices? Let me know in the comments below!