Emmy Predictions 2020 - Who Will Likely Be Nominated for Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie?

From July 2 to July 13, 2020, voting took place for The 72nd Annual Primetime Emmy Awards. As such, it's fun to look at which actors and shows have the best chances of actually being nominated this year. So, these are my predictions for who will be nominated for Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie.

2019 Nominees:

        Patricia Arquette for Hulu's The Act (WINNER)
        Marsha Stephanie Blake for Netflix's When They See Us
        Patricia Clarkson for HBO's Sharp Objects
        Vera Farmiga for Netflix's When They See Us
        Margaret Qualley for FX's Fosse/Verdon
        Emily Watson for HBO's Chernobyl

This category could be filled entirely by the actresses from Mrs. America. That would be completely unprecedented. It's also incredibly unlikely because of several other worth contenders. As such, the hardest part of predicting this category is figuring out how many slots to give to Mrs. America and which actresses will be snubbed to make room for the other shows. Toni Collette and Jean Smart for Unbelievable and Watchmen respectively seem at the top of the pack. Allison Janney is a favorite by the voters and could make a push into the category with Bad Education. Three spots for Mrs. America absolutely seems reasonable. Rose Byrne probably gets one. Sarah Paulson probably gets another. Trying to figure out who out of Uzo Aduba, Elizabeth Banks, Margo Martindale and Tracey Ullman gets that final slot is completely agonizing and almost impossible. The cast for that limited series was stacked with talent these voters are prone to appreciate. Even if four of them got into the field, it will still feel like someone will be getting snubbed. Stars like Hollywood's Patti LuPone and Holland Taylor may be an afterthought in the end. Hong Chau was compelling on Watchmen as well. And yet, that show seems relegated to only having one nominee in this crowded field. That will absolutely go to Smart. This is the category where the new nomination rules probably don't work so well. The final tallies will probably be close. And yet, the nominees will be capped off at six. That is almost unfair but those are the rules this year. We have to accept that while knowing that this race started as competitive and will remain as such for the rest of the awards cycle.

For the 2020 awards ceremony, the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences decided to tie the number of nominations to the number of submissions in each category. For Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie, 121 actresses were eligible on the ballot. That will translate to six nominees in this category.

Actors most likely to be nominated:

1. Toni Collette for Netflix's Unbelievable
2. Jean Smart for HBO's Watchmen
3. Rose Byrne for FX on Hulu's Mrs. America
4. Sarah Paulson for FX on Hulu's Mrs. America
5. Uzo Aduba for FX on Hulu's Mrs. America
6. Allison Janney for HBO's Bad Education

Serious threats that could break through:

1. Margo Martindale, Tracey Ullman, Elizabeth Banks and Ari Graynor for FX on Hulu's Mrs. America
2. Hong Chau for HBO's Watchmen
3. Patti LuPone, Holland Taylor, Samara Weaving, Laura Harrier and Mira Sorvino for Netflix's Hollywood
4. Winona Ryder for HBO's The Plot Against America
5. Naomi Watts, Sienna Miller and Annabelle Wallis for Showtime's The Loudest Voice
6. Melissa Leo, Kathryn Hahn, Rosie O'Donnell and Archie Panjabi for HBO's I Know This Much Is True
7. Cherry Jones for AppleTV+'s Defending Jacob
8. Rosemarie DeWitt and Huang Lu for Hulu's Little Fires Everywhere
9. Jane Krakowski and Carol Kane for Netflix's Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: Kimmy vs. the Reverend

Some considerable long-shots:

1. Billie Lourd, Angelica Ross, Emma Roberts and Leslie Grossman for FX's American Horror Story: 1984
2. Gaby Hoffmann, Kathryn Hahn, Amy Landecker and Alexandra Billings for Amazon's Transparent Musicale Finale
3. Ellie Kemper, Tiffany Haddish, Justina Machado and Corinne Foxx for ABC's Live in Front of a Studio Audience: "All in the Family" and "Good Times"
4. Viola Davis and Allison Janney for Amazon's Troop Zero
5. Helen McCrory for AMC's Quiz
6. Danielle Macdonald for Netflix's Unbelievable
7. Elsie Fisher and Yusra Warsama for Hulu's Castle Rock
8. Amandla Stenberg for Netflix's The Eddy
9. Alison Pill and Cailee Spaeny for FX on Hulu's Devs
10. Emma Thompson, Ruth Madeley, T'Nia Miller and Jessica Hynes for HBO's Years and Years

Colorful oddities who still have an outside chance:

1. Cicely Tyson for OWN's Cherish the Day
2. Sally Field and Eve Lindley for AMC's Dispatches From Elsewhere
3. Marcia Gay Harden for National Geographic's Barkskins
4. Jen Richards for HBO's Mrs. Fletcher
5. Tiffany Haddish and Carmen Ejogo for Netflix's Self Made
6. Retta for NBC's A Parks and Recreation Special
7. Kim Dickens for USA's Briarpatch
8. Julianne Nicholson for Disney+'s Togo
9. Dolly Wells for Netflix's Dracula

What do you think? Do you agree or disagree with my choices? Let me know in the comments below!