Emmy Predictions 2020 - Which Programs Will Likely Be Nominated for TV Movie?

From July 2 to July 13, 2020, voting took place for The 72nd Annual Primetime Emmy Awards. As such, it's fun to look at which actors and shows have the best chances of actually being nominated this year. So, these are my predictions for who will be nominated for Television Movie.

2019 Nominees:

        Netflix's Black Mirror: Bandersnatch (WINNER)
        HBO's Brexit
        HBO's Deadwood: The Movie
        Amazon's King Lear
        HBO's My Dinner with Hervé

An episode of Netflix's Black Mirror has prevailed in this category for the past three years. However, none of the episodes from the anthology's most recent season met the time requirements. As such, it's forced to compete as a drama series for the first time. That means the winner of this category will actually be a project produced as a movie instead of a long episode of an anthology series. That is significant. Of course, several submissions are actually follow-up movies to series that previously concluded their runs. Breaking Bad, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt and Transparent all got that treatment this past year. They should all be seen as a competitive force as well. Meanwhile, HBO has once again produced a standalone film that should do very well amongst the voters. The network can put its full backing behind Bad Education too because it's the only submission it can push. That makes it a clear frontrunner because of HBO's track record here. Netflix has done well in recent years too. Those two players will likely be battling it out. It should be fascinating to see if Disney+ can manage to land a nomination here. Lifetime could also make a dent in this particular category. The ballot may be thin but that doesn't mean the race is less exciting than usual. It will still be competitive to see which movies can appeal to the voters.

For the 2020 awards ceremony, the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences decided to tie the number of nominations to the number of submissions in each category. For TV Movie, 28 programs were eligible on the ballot. That will translate to five nominees in this category.

Movies most likely to be nominated:

1. HBO's Bad Education
2. Netflix's El Camino: A Breaking Bad Movie
3. Netflix's American Son
4. Lifetime's Patsy & Loretta
5. Netflix's Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: Kimmy vs. the Reverend

Serious threats that could break through:

1. Lifetime's The Clark Sisters: First Ladies of Gospel
2. Amazon's Transparent Musicale Finale
3. Disney+'s Togo
4. Amazon's Troop Zero
5. Amazon's Blow the Man Down

Some considerable long-shots:

1. FX's A Christmas Carol
2. Lifetime's Stolen by My Mother: The Kamiyah Mobley Story
3. Netflix's Dolly Parton's Heartstrings: These Old Bones
4. Lifetime's I Was Lorena Bobbitt
5. Disney+'s Lady and the Tramp

Colorful oddities who still have an outside chance:

1. Freeform's The Thing About Harry
2. Disney+'s Noelle
3. Hulu's Into the Dark: Culture Shock
4. Disney+'s Stargirl

What do you think? Do you agree or disagree with my choices? Let me know in the comments below!