Emmy Predictions 2022 - Who Will Likely Be Nominated for Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie?

From June 16-27, 2022, voting took place for The 74th Primetime Emmy Awards. As such, it's fun to look at which actors and shows have the best chances of actually being nominated this year. So, these are my predictions for which performers will be nominated for Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie.

Performers most likely to be nominated:

1. Michael Keaton for Hulu's Dopesick
2. Colin Firth for HBO Max's The Staircase
3. Andrew Garfield for FX's Under the Banner of Heaven
4. Ben Foster for HBO's The Survivor
5. Jared Leto for AppleTV+'s WeCrashed

Serious threats who could break through:

1. Sebastian Stan for Hulu's Pam & Tommy
2. Paul Bettany for Amazon's A Very British Scandal
3. Oscar Isaac for HBO's Scenes From a Marriage
4. Samuel L. Jackson for AppleTV+'s The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey
5. Sean Penn for Starz's Gaslit
6. Tom Hiddleston for AppleTV+'s The Essex Serpent
7. Sam Elliott for Paramount+'s 1883
8. David Thewlis for HBO's Landscapers
9. Miles Teller for Paramount+'s The Offer

Some considerable long-shots:

1. Liev Schreiber for Showtime's Ray Donovan: The Movie
2. Jon Bernthal for HBO's We Own This City
3. Joseph Gordon-Levitt for Showtime's Super Pumped: The Battle for Uber
4. Himesh Patel for HBO Max's Station Eleven
5. Oscar Isaac for Disney+'s Moon Knight
6. Hamish Linklater for Netflix's Midnight Mass
7. Joshua Jackson for Peacock's Dr. Death
8. Rupert Friend for Netflix's Anatomy of a Scandal
9. John Lithgow, Jon Stewart, Kevin Hart and Damon Wayans for ABC's Live in Front of a Studio Audience: The Facts of Life & Diff'rent Strokes

Colorful oddities who still have an outside chance:

1. Will Ferrell and Paul Rudd for AppleTV+'s The Shrink Next Door
2. Kevin Hart for Netflix's True Story
3. William Jackson Harper for HBO Max's Love Life
4. Tom Riley for Netflix's The Woman in the House Across the Street From the Girl in the Window
5. John Cameron Mitchell for Peacock's Joe vs. Carole
6. Jaden Michael for Netflix's Colin in Black & White
7. Daniel Dae Kim and Tony Goldwyn for National Geographic's The Hot Zone: Anthrax

The nominations for The 74th Primetime Emmy Awards will be announced on Tuesday, July 12.