On Monday, September 12 at 8/7c. on NBC, the winners of The 74th Primetime Emmy Awards will be announced in a ceremony hosted by Saturday Night Live star Kenan Thompson. Here are my final predictions on which nominees seem most likely to win as informed by historic trends, overall nominations and the winners from the Creative Arts ceremonies last weekend.
Outstanding Comedy Series
WILL WIN: Hulu's Only Murders in the Building
UPSET POTENTIAL: ABC's Abbott Elementary
Outstanding Drama Series
WILL WIN: HBO's Succession
UPSET POTENTIAL: Netflix's Squid Game
Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
WILL WIN: HBO's The White Lotus
UPSET POTENTIAL: Hulu's Dopesick
Outstanding Competition Program
WILL WIN: VH1's RuPaul's Drag Race
UPSET POTENTIAL: Amazon's Lizzo's Watch Out for the Big Grrrls
Outstanding Variety Talk Series
WILL WIN: HBO's Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
UPSET POTENTIAL: CBS' The Late Show with Stephen Colbert
Outstanding Variety Sketch Series
WILL WIN: HBO's A Black Lady Sketch Show
UPSET POTENTIAL: NBC's Saturday Night Live
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
WILL WIN: Steve Martin for Hulu's Only Murders in the Building - "Open and Shut"
UPSET POTENTIAL: Bill Hader for HBO's Barry - "Starting Now"
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
WILL WIN: Jean Smart for HBO Max's Hacks - "The Click"
UPSET POTENTIAL: Quinta Brunson for ABC's Abbott Elementary - "Pilot"
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
WILL WIN: Lee Jung-jae for Netflix's Squid Game - "Gganbu"
UPSET POTENTIAL: Bob Odenkirk for AMC's Better Call Saul - "Plan and Execution"
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
WILL WIN: Zendaya for HBO's Euphoria - "Stand Still Like the Hummingbird"
UPSET POTENTIAL: Melanie Lynskey for Showtime's Yellowjackets - "Doomcoming"
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
WILL WIN: Michael Keaton for Hulu's Dopesick
UPSET POTENTIAL: Colin Firth for HBO Max's The Staircase
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
WILL WIN: Margaret Qualley for Netflix's Maid
UPSET POTENTIAL: Amanda Seyfried for Hulu's The Dropout
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
WILL WIN: Brett Goldstein for AppleTV+'s Ted Lasso - "Rainbow"
UPSET POTENTIAL: Henry Winkler for HBO's Barry - "Starting Now"
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
WILL WIN: Hannah Waddingham for AppleTV+'s Ted Lasso - "No Weddings and a Funeral"
UPSET POTENTIAL: Sheryl Lee Ralph for ABC's Abbott Elementary - "New Tech"
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
WILL WIN: Oh Yeong-su for Netflix's Squid Game - "Gganbu"
UPSET POTENTIAL: Matthew Macfadyen for HBO's Succession - "All the Bells Say"
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
WILL WIN: Jung Ho-yeon for Netflix's Squid Game - "Gganbu"
UPSET POTENTIAL: Rhea Seehorn for AMC's Better Call Saul - "Hit and Run"
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
WILL WIN: Murray Bartlett for HBO's The White Lotus - "Recentering"
UPSET POTENTIAL: Steve Zahn for HBO's The White Lotus - "Mysterious Monkeys"
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
WILL WIN: Jennifer Coolidge for HBO's The White Lotus - "Mysterious Monkeys"
UPSET POTENTIAL: Kaitlyn Dever for Hulu's Dopesick - "The Whistleblower"
Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series
WILL WIN: Jamie Babbit for Hulu's Only Murders in the Building - "True Crime"
UPSET POTENTIAL: Bill Hader for HBO's Barry - "710N"
Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series
WILL WIN: Mark Mylod for HBO's Succession - "All the Bells Say"
UPSET POTENTIAL: Hwang Dong-hyuk for Netflix's Squid Game - "Red Light, Green Light"
Outstanding Directing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
WILL WIN: Mike White for HBO's The White Lotus
UPSET POTENTIAL: Danny Strong for Hulu's Dopesick - "The People vs. Purdue Pharma"
Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series
WILL WIN: Steve Martin and John Hoffman for Hulu's Only Murders in the Building - "True Crime"
UPSET POTENTIAL: Quinta Brunson for ABC's Abbott Elementary - "Pilot"
Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series
WILL WIN: Jesse Armstrong for HBO's Succession - "All the Bells Say"
UPSET POTENTIAL: Hwang Dong-Hyuk for Netflix's Squid Game - "One Lucky Day"
Outstanding Writing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
WILL WIN: Mike White for HBO's The White Lotus
UPSET POTENTIAL: Danny Strong for Hulu's Dopesick - "The People vs. Purdue Pharma"
Outstanding Writing for a Variety Special
WILL WIN: Jerrod Carmichael for HBO's Jerrod Carmichael: Rothaniel
UPSET POTENTIAL: Norm Macdonald for Netflix's Norm Macdonald: Nothing Special