Emmy Predictions 2023 - Who Will Likely Be Nominated for Lead Actress in a Drama Series?

From June 15 to 26, 2023, voting is taking place for The 75th Primetime Emmy Awards. As such, it's fun to look at which actors and shows have the best chances of actually being nominated this year. So, these are my predictions for which performers will be nominated for Lead Actress in a Drama Series.

Performers most likely to be nominated:

1. Sarah Snook for HBO's Succession
2. Melanie Lynskey for Showtime's Yellowjackets
3. Bella Ramsey for HBO's The Last of Us
4. Elisabeth Moss for Hulu's The Handmaid's Tale
5. Imelda Staunton for Netflix's The Crown
6. Emma D'Arcy for HBO's House of the Dragon

Serious threats that could break through:

1. Keri Russell for Netflix's The Diplomat
2. Helen Mirren for Paramount+'s 1923
3. Sophie Nélisse, Juliette Lewis and Tawny Cypress for Showtime's Yellowjackets
4. Sharon Horgan for AppleTV+'s Bad Sisters
5. India Amarteifio for Netflix's Queen Charlotte: A Bridgerton Story
6. Kelly Reilly for Paramount Network's Yellowstone
7. Katee Sackhoff for Disney+'s The Mandalorian
8. Christine Baranski for Paramount+'s The Good Fight

Some considerable long-shots:

1. Myha'la Herrold and Marisa Abela for HBO's Industry
2. Erin Moriarty and Karen Fukuhara for Amazon's The Boys
3. Priyanka Chopra Jonas for Amazon's Citadel
4. Wrenn Schmidt, Krys Marshall and Shantel VanSanten for AppleTV+'s For All Mankind
5. Alexandra Daddario for AMC's Mayfair Witches
6. Evan Rachel Wood for HBO's Westworld
7. Niecy Nash-Betts for ABC's The Rookie: Feds
8. Luciane Buchanan for Netflix's The Night Agent
9. Brandee Evans for Starz's P-Valley
10. Gugu Mbatha-Raw for AppleTV+'s Surface

Colorful oddities that still have an outside chance:

1. Dafne Keen for HBO's His Dark Materials
2. Toni Collette for Amazon's The Power
3. Hilary Swank for ABC's Alaska Daily
4. Lizzy Caplan for Paramount+'s Fatal Attraction
5. Samantha Morton for Starz's The Serpent Queen
6. Katja Herbers for Paramount+'s Evil
7. Jessie Mei Li for Netflix's Shadow and Bone
8. Constance Wu for Amazon's The Terminal List
9. Charlotte Ritchie for Netflix's You
10. Railey Gilliland and Seazynn Gilliland for Freevee's High School

The nominations for The 75th Primetime Emmy Awards will be announced on Wednesday, July 12.